Everyone in the IT world is wondering how big a threat quantum computers pose to cryptography and how to deal with the problem. This series of articles tries to explain the problem in a popular way. After estimation of power consumption gain an overview of the technologies studied and used.
A person interested in the issue of quantum computers should take a look at the usability of the technologies of the mentioned devices. There is such a list here, but it does not try to be exhaustive. Rather, it is an overview of those available and used. In addition, the volume of the device includes the value including all supporting components (cooling including compressors, vacuum pumps, control, measurement, classical computers for subsequent calculations, and others). Based on the power consumption, it is possible to estimate the size of the actual computing components. Such an estimate is subject to error, because without specific knowledge of the design, it is not possible to obtain a sufficient amount of specific data.
| Technology | Working temperature | Computer power consumption | Cooling power consumption | System power consumption | Device volume | Number of qubits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Superconducting qubits (IBM, Google) | 10–20 mK | ~mW | 15–25kW | 15–25kW | ~1–2m3 | 50-127 |
Trapped ions (IonQ, Honeywell) | μK | ~mW | ~20kW | ~25kW | ~1m3 | 10-32 |
Neutral atoms Optical traps | μK | ~mW | 5–10kW | 5–10kW | < 1m3 | 50-200 |
| Photonic qubits | room | ~mW | 0.5–1kW | 4–5kW | < 1m3 | 50-200 |
Spin qubits in semiconductors (Si, SiGe) | 10–100 mK | ~mW | ~mW | 10–20kW | <1m3 | 10-50 |
Such a view leads to the impression that quantum technologies themselves are huge complexes. However, the situation is significantly different. Current quantum processors, although they are huge compared to digital processors, are relatively small. But the ratio of the volume of the cooling system to the volume of the quantum processor itself is approximately in the range of 107:1 to 108:1. The largest volume in the system is therefore occupied by the cooling and insulation system. For comparison, an overview of the dimensions of the processors themselves and the cooling systems.
| Technology | QPU volume | Cooling volume | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superconducting qubits | ~0.1 cm3 | 10–30 m3 | 108:1 |
| Spin qubits (Si) | ~0.05 cm3 | 5–20 m3 | 108:1 |
| Ion traps | ~5 cm3 | ~0.5–2 m3 | 105–106:1 |
| Neutral atoms | ~1 cm3 | ~0.3–1 m3 | 105–106:1 |
| Photonic chips | ~0.5 cm3 | ~0.1 m3 | 104–105:1 |
If we were to talk only about the technologies and the operating temperatures used, the following overview can be provided from the available sources. Again, this overview is not perfect and contains only publicly available information. Such an overview shows that some types of quantum circuits are not suitable for computers at the current level of knowledge, others require too low temperatures and therefore significant demands on energy resources for adequate cooling.
| Technology | State | Qubit type | Typical operating temperature | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superconducting Josephson Circuits (SQUID) | Production | Macroscopic superconducting circuit | 10–20 mK | IBM, Google, Rigetti |
| Ion traps | Production | Internal state of the ion | ~300 K (ions effectively ~mK) | IonQ, Quantinuum |
| Neutral atoms (Rydberg) | Production | Excited atoms | 1–10 μK | QuEra, Pasqal |
| Linear optical QC | Active research | Photons | 300 K (detectors 1–4 K) | Xanadu |
| NV (nitrogen vacancy) centers in diamond crystals | Production / sensors | Electron spin | 300 K (better <10 K) | RT qubits |
| Spin qubits in semiconductors (Si, GaAs) | Active research | Electron spin | 10–100 mK | Intel , academic |
| Donor qubits (P:Si, Bi:Si) | Active research | Nuclear/electron spin | 10–100 mK | Very long coherence |
| Topological qubits (Majoran fermions) | Research | Non-Abelian quasiparticles | 10–50 mK | No working qubit yet? |
| Bose–Einstein condensate (BEC) | Research | Collective state | 10–100 nK | Simulation |
| Optical gratings | Research | Neutral atoms | nK–μK | Quantum simulators |
| CQED (atoms in cavities) | Active research | Atom–photon | μK–mK | Strong bond |
| Quantum dots (charge position) | Research | Charge | <100 mK | Strong decoherence |
| Quantum dots (spintronics) | Active research | Spin | 10–100 mK | Very promising |
| Electrons to helium | Research | Spin/orbital | <100 mK | Extremely low noise |
| Fullerene traps (spintronics) | Research | Spin | <10K | ESR manipulation |
| Carbon nanospheres (spintronics) | Theoretical | Spin | <10K | Materials research |
| Molecular magnets | Research | Molecular spin | <1K | Short coherence |
| Magnon qubits | Research | Spin wave | <1K | Hybrid systems |
| Mechanical qubits (optomechanics) | Research | Vibration modes | <100 mK | Hybrid |
| Exciton qubits | Research | Exciton | <10K | Short lifespan |
| Polaritons | Research | Light–matter | 4–300K | Analog simulations |
| Superfluid helium (phonons, vortices) | Research | Collective fashions | <1K | Low noise |
| NMR QC – solution | Historical | Nuclear spins | 300K | Not scalable |
| Solid-phase NMR (phosphorus in Si) | Active research | Nuclear spin | <1K | High stability |
| Hybrid atom–photonic systems | Research | Mixed | μK–mK | Quantum networks |
| Floquet qubits | Theoretical/research | Periodically controlled | Platform dependent | Topological phases |
Based on the information provided, it is possible to very roughly extrapolate the possible existence of quantum computers. If they could be built, given the progress in miniaturization, they could possibly achieve the following parameters. Such an estimate shows that theoretically we would be able to develop some computers, but the energy requirements would be extreme. The problem with such considerations is the limitation given by the estimate of the volume of the system. Currently, the volumes available include cooling technologies, insulation and support systems, so such an estimate is quite problematic. Estimates of the volume based on current information (this may change significantly) are then approximately as follows:
| Technology | Probability of CRQC 2035–2040 | Working temperature | Estimation of physical qubits | System volume estimation | Sphere equivalent (diameter) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superconducting qubits (Josephson) | High | 10–20 mK | 1–20 million | 300–1000 m3 | 8–12 m | Fastest roadmaps, high cooling overhead |
| Ion traps | Medium – high | ions μK, HW ~300 K | 1–10 million | 200–600 m3 | 7–10 m | Excellent coherence, slower gates |
| Neutral atoms (Rydberg) | Medium – high | 1–10 μK | 1–10 million | 150–500 m3 | 6–9 m | High qubit density |
| Topological/cat qubits | Medium (uncertain) | 10–50 mK | 0.1–1 million | 100–300 m3 | 6–8 m | Potentially low overhead, but unverified |
| Photonic QC (error-corrected) | Medium | 300 K (detectors 1–4 K) | 10–100 million (virtual) | 50–200 m3 | 4–7 m | No deep cryogenics |
| Spin qubits in Si (CMOS) | Medium | 10–100 mK | 1–10 million | 100–400 m3 | 6–9 m | High integration, slower development |
To be continued in the next section Quantum Computer evaluation (April 6th 2026)
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